NL Manager of the Year Ballot Reflection
This year, I have the distinct honor of participating in the NL Manager of the Year ballot—a coveted award I’ve only had the opportunity to vote on once in my 15-plus years with the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). To be honest, it’s my least favorite award to evaluate. Judging managers from the outside is a challenging task, as tactical decisions are often difficult to decipher. Furthermore, the overall impact of skilled managers is frequently overstated. Just look at the Brewers; the loss of one of baseball’s top managers caused their season to take a nosedive. Nevertheless, this assignment allows me to delve into all six of the major player awards. It’s worth noting that these ballots are hypothetical, and my commentary here has no bearing on actual outcomes—only your sentiments. Please feel free to react accordingly.
American League MVP
- 1. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
- 2. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
- 3. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
- 4. Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees
- 5. José Ramírez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
- 6. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
- 7. Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
- 8. Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
- 9. Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City Royals
- 10. Brent Rooker, OF, Oakland A’s
As I compose this on September 23, Aaron Judge stands at an impressive 10.5 bWAR, placing him among the elite in baseball history. This remarkable season ranks as the 16th best for any position player in the integration era, with six of the top fifteen seasons attributed to legends like Mays and Bonds. Judge’s season is not just historic; it surpasses even Shohei Ohtani’s remarkable achievements, despite Ohtani’s impressive 50/50 accomplishment. Judge’s OBP of .458 ranks him among the top 50 in the integration era, and only three players have ever posted an OBP over .450 while also hitting at least 50 homers: Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, and Mark McGwire (twice). I have previously expressed concerns about Judge’s long-term durability as he approaches his mid-30s, yet his age-32 season is undeniably one for the record books.
The remainder of this list is largely academic; Judge is on track for a unanimous win, and any deviation from that will simply fuel debates on whatever remains of the platform formerly known as Twitter. It is worth noting that Bobby Witt Jr. has blossomed into an absolute superstar this year, likely to be the unanimous runner-up to Judge, which speaks volumes about his impressive performance. This is not only a tribute to Witt but also a testament to the Kansas City Royals’ success in developing hitters in recent seasons.
Additionally, I have included two pitchers in my top ten. While they may appear “over-ranked” based solely on WAR, it is essential to consider the evolution of pitcher usage, which could significantly disadvantage pitchers in MVP discussions if we fail to account for their reduced utilization. This is more of a philosophical debate than a statistical one.
National League MVP
- 1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2. Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets
- 3. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
- 4. Ketel Marte, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
- 5. William Contreras, C, Milwaukee Brewers
- 6. Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta
- 7. Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres
- 8. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
- 9. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants
- 10. Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
If I were to take a contrarian stance, I could construct a compelling argument for Francisco Lindor; however, the overwhelming evidence suggests that Shohei Ohtani is on track to become the first true designated hitter to win an MVP award. This is not solely due to his remarkable 50/50 achievement—though that is undeniably impressive—but rather because his offensive contributions have proven so invaluable that they overshadow any shortcomings related to his defensive absence.
Ohtani’s season is historic in its own right, as he has emerged as the best hitter in the National League, posting an astounding 73.5 batting runs—more than 30 ahead of the next closest player, Marcell Ozuna. According to Baseball-Reference, he boasts an 8.4 WAR, with the second-highest being Edgar Martinez’s best season at 7.0 WAR (realized during a slightly shortened season in 1995). FanGraphs also has Ohtani at 8.3 WAR. This season is distinguished from Judge’s in a unique manner, but both players are experiencing seasons that leave little room for debate. Although the 50/50 aspect is intriguing, it is merely trivia compared to measuring his overall value to the Dodgers.
Let’s take a moment to applaud the Brewers for acquiring William Contreras through a trade that did not directly involve them. Atlanta made a significant trade for Sean Murphy with the Athletics, giving up several prospects, including Contreras—who was not sent to Oakland. Instead, the A’s acquired Esteury Ruiz, when they should have taken Contreras. The Brewers seized the opportunity and emerged as the clear winners, as evidenced by Contreras’s fWAR of 5.4, surpassing Murphy’s best career season. It serves as a reminder that sometimes, it pays to “stick your nose” into trade discussions.
Furthermore, an incredible shoutout is due for Chris Sale. At 35 years old, he has managed to post his second-best season ever, defying the odds after struggling through four consecutive years of injuries and underperformance. Depending on how you view his impact, you could justify placing him anywhere from No. 3 downwards. I have a lengthy history of underestimating Sale, and I expect to continue that trend in 2024, as I never anticipated Atlanta acquiring such a high-caliber pitcher for Vaughn Grissom. Tarik Skubal has also been instrumental in leading a resurgent Tigers team.
American League Cy Young
- 1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit
- 2. Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City
- 3. Cole Ragans, LHP, Kansas City
- 4. Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore
- 5. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle
Skubal is poised to win this award either unanimously or close to it, which seems to be the overarching narrative for this year—most awards appear to have a clear favorite. The fact that the Royals have two pitchers in the top five, particularly one acquired through a shrewd offseason transaction, is noteworthy. Both Burnes and Gilbert deserve recognition for their ability to log substantial innings in an era dominated by “five-and-dive” starters, thus placing them ahead of pitchers like Houston’s Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco, who may have had lower ERAs but didn’t pitch as many innings (and Blanco likely benefited from defensive support and luck).
National League Cy Young
- 1. Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta
- 2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia
- 3. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco
- 4. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego
- 5. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Philadelphia
As previously mentioned, Sale’s performance in the MVP section speaks volumes, and he is expected to win this award by a wide margin. It is truly astonishing that a 35-year-old pitcher, following Tommy John surgery and a challenging recovery, has managed to deliver the second-best season of his career. I genuinely believe he is Hall of Fame material, and should the moment arise, I would gladly introduce him at Cooperstown, possibly beginning with a reading of my previous misguided comments about him—though that might take a while.
Another noteworthy mention on this ballot is Logan Webb, who tends to be underrated by advanced metrics, as they have not fully adjusted to the evolution of pitcher usage. Webb consistently delivers innings, and he is on track to lead the National League in innings pitched for the second consecutive year, an impressive feat in today’s game.
American League Rookie of the Year
- 1. Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore
- 2. Luis Gil, RHP, NY Yankees
- 3. Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas
It is entirely possible for two statements to be true at once: Colton Cowser has indeed established himself as the best rookie in the American League this season, and at the same time, he possesses certain flaws that may limit his everyday playing time on a playoff-caliber team. By every measure, Cowser leads AL rookies in WAR, and he does so with a significant margin. His performance thus far should make him a strong contender for the award. However, it is crucial to acknowledge his struggles against left-handed pitchers, and he remains primarily a dead fastball hitter against righties. His performance against breaking balls is somewhat surprising, given his whiff rate hovers around 40 percent. Back in March, I identified Cowser as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate due to his expected playing time and the likelihood of strong counting stats. Even accounting for the value lost from his time facing left-handed pitchers, he still leads all AL rookies in overall value.
In contrast, players like Austin Wells or Wilyer Abreu, who were primarily platoon players, often get inflated WAR values because they don’t face the same penalties as those who struggle against lefties. While both Wells and Abreu underperformed against left-handed pitching, Cowser’s ability to qualify for the batting title despite his issues is commendable. This is why I included Gil, who established himself as the best non-Paul Skenes rookie pitcher in baseball this year, alongside Langford, who managed to play daily and overcame a slow start to finish with a 3-WAR season.
National League Rookie of the Year
- 1. Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres
- 2. Paul Skenes, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
- 3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
While I believe Skenes may ultimately win this award due to his visibility and impact, I want to shine a light on Jackson Merrill, who has had an outstanding rookie season while also successfully transitioning to a new position. Merrill has impressed on both sides of the field, exceeding my expectations and those of many others. Though Skenes had a commendable season, I would place Merrill ahead of him on my ballot.
The third position was an intense debate between Chourio and Shota Imanaga, but I opted for Chourio due to his youth and the strong impression he has made, indicating he could emerge as a superstar sooner rather than later. My perspective has always been that the Rookie of the Year award should spotlight the game’s future stars, rather than simply identifying the next Joe Charbonneau or Pat Listach. Chourio stands out as the only player under 21 who accumulated enough playing time to qualify, and as of now, he is on the brink of a remarkable 4-WAR season.
(Top photo illustration of Ohtani (left) and Judge: Judge: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images / Ohtani: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
