Just two weeks into the college football season, the race for the College Football Playoff has already been filled with unexpected twists and turns. Teams that seemed poised for success have stumbled, while others have risen to the occasion, creating a dynamic and unpredictable landscape.
Florida State, for instance, experienced a shocking drop in its playoff hopes after disappointing performances in both Week 0 and Week 1, which appeared to eliminate them from contention for the 12-team playoff format early on. Meanwhile, Notre Dame, which had a clear path following a victory over Texas A&M, suffered a surprising defeat at home against Northern Illinois as a staggering 28.5-point favorite.
The beauty of the expanded playoff system is that an early-season loss doesn’t completely derail a team’s playoff ambitions. While it certainly makes the road ahead more challenging, the four-team format in previous seasons often proved unforgiving to teams that stumbled early. This year, we will see teams’ fortunes fluctuate as the season progresses, making for an exhilarating ride week by week.
Every Tuesday, I will be analyzing which teams are trending upward and downward in my College Football Playoff Projections model. Given the length of the season, it’s likely that most teams will find themselves fluctuating between these two extremes, especially since a team’s playoff chances are heavily influenced by the outcomes of other teams.
After Week 2, Florida State’s playoff odds plummeted dramatically from a promising 54 percent in the preseason to a mere 1 percent. Here’s a look at the teams currently trending upward:
Stock Up
Rising Playoff Chances
| Team | Preseason | After Week 2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 9.1% | 59.5% | 50.4% |
| Tennessee | 17.9% | 56.6% | 38.7% |
| Miami | 19.3% | 46.8% | 27.5% |
| Utah | 44.5% | 70.2% | 25.7% |
| Ole Miss | 45.7% | 65.8% | 20.1% |
| Alabama | 54.9% | 74.4% | 19.5% |
| Texas | 70.2% | 88.7% | 18.5% |
| Louisville | 11.5% | 28.1% | 16.6% |
| Missouri | 30.5% | 40.3% | 9.8% |
| UNLV | 1.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
USC
The Trojans entered the season with just a 9 percent chance of making the playoff, according to my model. However, after a solid 2-0 start, including a crucial victory over LSU, their chances have soared to 60 percent, positioning them as the projected 10-seed with a potential first-round matchup against Alabama.
This optimistic outlook may be somewhat ahead of reality for USC, but under the leadership of Lincoln Riley, the Trojans have consistently produced high-octane offenses. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn appears to have made significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball, evidenced by USC’s ability to limit LSU to just 20 points and achieve a shutout against Utah State. In contrast to the previous years under Alex Grinch, where the defense was a liability, USC now shows promise of being competent, if not exceptional, on defense. If this trend continues, the Trojans could well be playing deep into December in their inaugural season in the Big Ten.
Another factor positively influencing USC’s playoff projections is the decline of future opponents like Michigan, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin in the model’s rankings over the first two weeks. After a scheduled bye this week, USC will face Michigan in Week 4, followed by a home game against Wisconsin in Week 5. If the Trojans can navigate these challenging matchups unscathed, their schedule looks favorable, with potential wins in every game except a difficult contest against Penn State on October 12.
Tennessee
In the preseason, I may have underestimated the capabilities of new starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Tennessee has made considerable strides in the playoff projections, climbing from an 18 percent chance to 57 percent following a dominant 51-10 victory over NC State. The Volunteers are now projected as the No. 11 seed.
Ranked 12th overall, Tennessee boasts a top-five offense and a defense that has impressively cracked the top 40. I suspect the defense may even rank higher, given the level of talent displayed against NC State, which struggled to find success against the Volunteers’ defense, landing in the 18th percentile for success rate.
The primary challenges for Tennessee lie in their upcoming road trips to Oklahoma and Georgia, alongside a home game against Alabama. If the Volunteers can manage a 1-2 record in these crucial games — a scenario my model currently predicts — they could still secure a playoff spot without any further setbacks. Following their victory over NC State, Tennessee surged to No. 7 in the AP poll.
Miami
Initially skeptical about the Hurricanes’ potential this season, I have gradually warmed to the idea that they could achieve significant success. Following a resounding victory over Florida and considering the current dynamics of the ACC, Miami finds itself in an advantageous position. My model now favors them to win the ACC, projecting the Hurricanes as the No. 4 seed in the playoff. They have jumped from a 19 percent chance to a robust 47 percent chance of making the playoff.
Quarterback Cam Ward, a transfer from Washington State, has established himself as a leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy early in the season. My model ranks Miami’s offense among the top 15 in the nation, while their defense remains solid. The Hurricanes are currently the most balanced team in the ACC, and if they have indeed learned how to effectively manage games, achieving 10 wins seems quite feasible.
The upcoming schedule favors Miami, as my model predicts they will be favored in all but one game — a tight matchup as underdogs at Louisville on October 19. Furthermore, avoiding matchups against Clemson, combined with Florida State and Virginia Tech’s early-season struggles, has positioned Miami to take the lead in the ACC race for a playoff spot.
Stock Down
Falling Playoff Chances
| Team | Preseason | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 53.5% | 0.4% | -53.1% |
| LSU | 57.6% | 24.5% | -33.1% |
| Michigan | 36.8% | 4.5% | -32.3% |
| Notre Dame | 61.8% | 31.8% | -30.0% |
| Oklahoma | 25.0% | 6.5% | -18.5% |
| Oklahoma State | 21.7% | 5.4% | -16.3% |
| Texas A&M | 23.7% | 9.6% | -14.1% |
| Virginia Tech | 19.6% | 6.1% | -13.5% |
| Boise State | 33.6% | 23.0% | -10.6% |
| Oregon | 86.4% | 76.4% | -10.0% |
