Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday. The bigger focus will center on what comes next for America’s central bank.
Fed officials are cutting interest rates in response to months of slowing inflation. Policymakers lowered borrowing costs for the first time in four years in September, reducing them by half a percentage point. Officials projected two more smaller rate cuts in 2024 and a string of further reductions in 2025.
But a combination of stronger recent economic veri and President-elect Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House could muddle that outlook.
The job market, which seemed wobbly when the Fed last met in September, has since stabilized. Consumer spending has remained strong, and overall growth looks solid. Those developments suggest that rates might not need to come down as much or as quickly in order to keep the economy steady.
And if Mr. Trump follows through on his campaign promises, they could make it more difficult for the Fed to continue lowering interest rates as quickly. He has pledged a combination of tax cuts, tariffs and deportations that economists and Wall Street investors think could fuel inflation.
“The main takeaway is that his election injects a higher degree of uncertainty into the outlook both for growth and for inflation,” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price.
