MLB Awards Predictions: Final Week of the Regular Season
As we approach the final week and a half of the regular season, excitement builds for the upcoming award season in Major League Baseball. Although the official awards will be presented in November after the World Series, we can already identify the front-runners for the major individual honors. This article takes a look at the current favorites for the key awards. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments regarding my picks!
(WAR figures are sourced from Baseball Reference as of September 19.)
American League MVP
- 1. Aaron Judge, CF, Yankees (9.8 WAR)
- 2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (9.2 WAR)
- 3. Juan Soto, RF, Yankees (7.7 WAR)
Aaron Judge has been a standout player this season, leading the American League in several categories: home runs (53), RBIs (136), walks (124), on-base percentage (.455), slugging percentage (.689), and OPS+ (218). As a six-time All-Star, he has also demonstrated excellent defensive skills in center field. His performance positions him well to secure his second MVP Award come November.
Bobby Witt Jr. is another strong contender, boasting impressive statistics that include leading the AL in batting average (.331), runs scored (124), and ranking high in on-base percentage (.387) and slugging percentage (.598). With 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, he has achieved his second consecutive 30-30 season while playing at a Gold Glove level defensively. However, it may not be enough to surpass Judge in the voting.
Juan Soto, despite finishing behind Judge and Witt, has had a strong season that will likely set him up for a lucrative free agency deal exceeding $600 million.
National League MVP
- 1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers (7.3 WAR)
- 2. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets (6.6 WAR)
- 3. Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks (5.7 WAR)
- 4. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies (4.4 WAR)
Shohei Ohtani is on the verge of an extraordinary milestone, potentially becoming the first player in MLB history to achieve a 50-50 season (50 home runs and 50 stolen bases). He leads the National League in several categories, including home runs (48), RBIs (110), runs (119), slugging percentage (.607), OPS (.978), and total bases (360). Ohtani is also a four-time All-Star and is in contention for his third MVP Award, having previously won in 2021 and 2023 with the Angels. However, Francisco Lindor’s MVP-caliber performance, which includes a batting average of .271, 31 home runs, and 27 stolen bases, makes this a tight race.
Ketel Marte and Bryce Harper also deserve recognition for their contributions this season, rounding out the list of candidates.
AL Cy Young
- 1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers (6.0 WAR)
- 2. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)
- 3. Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals (4.7 WAR)
Tarik Skubal has emerged as a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award, boasting a remarkable 17-4 record, a league-leading 2.48 ERA, and 221 strikeouts over 185 innings. His impressive performance is backed by exceptional metrics, as opposing hitters struggle against his diverse pitching arsenal.
Emmanuel Clase, with 46 saves in 49 opportunities and an astonishing 0.64 ERA, is likely to win the award for best AL reliever, showcasing his dominance on the mound.
NL Cy Young
- 1. Chris Sale, LHP, Braves (6.3 WAR)
- 2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies (5.5 WAR)
- 3. Michael King, RHP, Padres (3.9 WAR)
This year’s NL Cy Young race has been fiercely competitive between Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. Sale has surged ahead in the second half of the season, going 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA. Overall, he leads the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, FIP, and ERA+. His exceptional performance places him as the front-runner for his first Cy Young Award.
Zack Wheeler, with a stellar 16-6 record and a 2.56 ERA, is also in contention, particularly with his late-season performances.
AL Rookie of the Year
- 1. Austin Wells, C, Yankees (2.9 WAR)
- 2. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees (3.6 WAR)
- 3. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (2.4 WAR)
- 4. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s (2.5 WAR)
Austin Wells has established himself as the leading rookie position player this season, with a batting average of .244, 13 home runs, and a solid OPS+. His impressive defensive abilities and skills as a pitch framer make him a standout candidate for the Rookie of the Year award.
His teammate, Luis Gil, has also had a remarkable season as a pitcher, with a 14-6 record and a 3.14 ERA. Both players would be strong contenders in a system recognizing both rookie pitchers and position players.
NL Rookie of the Year
- 1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (5.5 WAR)
- 2. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres (4.0 WAR)
- 3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers (3.9 WAR)
Paul Skenes stands out as the leading candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year, boasting an impressive 10-3 record and a 2.07 ERA. His strong performances, highlighted by being selected to start the All-Star Game, make him a deserving winner.
Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio also showcase impressive statistics and strong performances throughout the season, contributing to a competitive field.
Mariano Rivera Award (AL Reliever of the Year)
- 1. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)
- 2. Kirby Yates, RHP, Rangers (3.1 WAR)
Emmanuel Clase has had a historic season, racking up 46 saves with a remarkable 0.65 ERA and a 0.640 WHIP. His ability to dominate hitters with a high-velocity cutter and a lethal slider has positioned him as the favorite for this award.
Kirby Yates also deserves recognition for his impressive performance this season.
Trevor Hoffman Award (NL Reliever of the Year)
- 1. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Braves (2.7 WAR)
- 2. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals (2.8 WAR)
The competition for the NL Reliever of the Year Award is tight, with Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Helsley showcasing outstanding performances. Iglesias has recorded 31 saves with a 1.87 ERA, while Helsley has notched 45 saves with a 2.15 ERA. This close race highlights the excellence of both pitchers.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
- Tyler O’Neill, OF, Red Sox (2.7 WAR)
After a couple of challenging seasons, Tyler O’Neill has made a strong comeback with the Red Sox, posting a .249 batting average, 31 home runs, and 61 RBIs. His resurgence is a testament to his talent and determination.
NL Comeback Player of the Year
- Chris Sale, LHP, Braves (6.3 WAR)
Chris Sale, having battled injuries in recent years, has returned to form with an impressive season, making him a strong candidate for the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Jack Flaherty also deserves mention for his contributions this season.
AL Manager of the Year
- 1. Matt Quatraro, Royals
- 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians
- 3. A.J. Hinch, Tigers
Matt Quatraro’s remarkable leadership has transformed the Royals from a struggling team to a playoff contender, making him the frontrunner for the AL Manager of the Year Award. His innovative strategies and ability to motivate players have been key to the team’s success.
NL Manager of the Year
- 1. Pat Murphy, Brewers
- 2. Carlos Mendoza, Mets
- 3. Mike Shildt, Padres
Pat Murphy’s ability to lead the Brewers through a challenging season, especially after significant roster changes, positions him as the favorite for the NL Manager of the Year Award. His strategic decisions have kept the team competitive in the NL Central.
(Top image: Chris Sale: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images; Aaron Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Paul Skenes: Gene Wang / Getty Images)
