Sunday in the NFL was all about AFC contenders bullying each other for position in the conference as the season’s stretch run awaits.
The Buffalo Bills showed calm and efficiency while handing Kansas City its first defeat after nine consecutive Chiefs victories to open the season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers proved they still have the formula for containing MVP favorite Lamar Jackson. Their 18-16 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, enabled partly by two more angst-inducing Justin Tucker missed field goals, lifted the Steelers to 8-2 and third in the AFC.
Finally, the Los Angeles Chargers blew a 21-point lead, then survived to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, marking them as a team in transition away from its disappointing past, willed into relevance by new coach Jim Harbaugh.
The Pick Six column leads this week with an updated look at the Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Chargers — the five AFC teams with seven or more victories and the best postseason prospects. The full Pick Six menu:
• AFC contenders recalibrated
• The Bears’ post-Waldron bump
• Seahawks’ Macdonald asserting?
• Jon Gruden is no Gregg Williams
• Fangio, Kingsbury and Moore
• Two-minute drill: 49ers’ window
1. What a day atop the AFC. Let’s run through the key takeaways.
Let’s begin in Orchard Park, N.Y., where the Bills’ 30-21 victory over the Chiefs marked their fourth consecutive regular-season victory over Kansas City.
• Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen got it right afterward, downplaying the victory because he and everyone else know the postseason is what will matter ultimately, and the Chiefs hold the big edge there.
Buffalo still must prove it can operate in those high-leverage situations under the pressure of an elimination game in January. This November tuneup was a step in that direction.
Case in point No. 1: Trailing 14-13, the Bills ran the final 2:44 off the clock before halftime with a 12-play drive, making a 33-yard field goal as the half expired. Getting points without leaving Patrick Mahomes any time for a rebuttal drive was textbook game management and execution — exactly what Buffalo must do to win these games.
Case in point No. 2: Leading 23-21 midway through the fourth quarter, the Bills put together another 12-play drive, this one ending with Allen’s ridiculous 26-yard scramble touchdown on fourth-and-2.
“I’m picking Josh Allen if we have a draft now to start a franchise,” an NFL exec texted after this Bills victory.
GO DEEPER
Josh Allen emerges as MVP favorite following signature play in win over Chiefs
Mahomes will have something to say about that in the playoffs, but this Bills team, with its improved run game and calmer feel about it, might be better by then. That’s because linebacker Matt Milano, Buffalo’s most important player on defense, will be returning from injury soon.
• Chiefs: The Chiefs were going to lose at some point, and there was a great chance that time would come Sunday. The Bills were favored.
The path to a third consecutive Üstün Bowl victory is still there. My prescription for the Chiefs: adding a healthy Isiah Pacheco to the offensive backfield next week while continuing to develop rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who for the second time in three weeks failed to get his second foot down inbounds on what should have been a rather routine big play.
This was otherwise an excellent game for Worthy. He scored on a 10-yard catch-and-run and held onto the ball after absorbing a big hit following a 31-yard reception.
The offense is still evolving. Travis Kelce is averaging 8.2 yards per catch, which is down from 10.6 last season, which was down from 12.2 in each of the two years before that, which was down from 13.5 in 2020. The trend for him is unmistakable now. DeAndre Hopkins’ addition at the trade deadline fills some of that void. With Pacheco returning and Worthy emerging, look for coach Andy Reid to hone this team’s offensive identity over the final seven weeks.
“It will look just like last year, right?” an opposing coach said. “Where they run the ball, then they run scramble drill, then they get some key receptions, and if you play too much one-high safety, they throw it up and someone catches it for 35 yards. Remember when (Marquez) Valdes-Scantling dropped all those balls and then made the catches to win the games? That is what they do.”
• Steelers: The Steelers’ 8-2 start is tied for their second-best under coach Mike Tomlin. They own a league-high five victories over teams that currently have winning records (Detroit and Kansas City are second with four apiece, while Baltimore and Tampa Bay are next with three).
“I still think they have to run the ball a little better, but the match of the offensive coordinator and the quarterback are made in heaven, as long as Russell (Wilson) doesn’t decide he has to start cooking all the time,” an exec said.
The Steelers are better in the passing game with Wilson behind center than they were when Justin Fields was in the lineup, but Sunday proved there’s room for both in the offense.
Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith worked Fields into the game for 8- and 13-yard runs on two second-and-long plays after halftime.
Could we see Fields in the red zone next?
Wilson has completed only 7 of 24 passes (29 percent) in the red zone with Pittsburgh. The interception he threw on third-and-goal from the Baltimore 5 could have cost the Steelers the game. Fields has completed 13 of 19 passes (68 percent) without any interceptions in the red zone. These are relatively small samples, but the rushing threat Fields adds to the offense could help in that area of the field, especially if Wilson struggles there.
It’s something to consider as the Steelers, led by a defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play, prove they belong among contenders.
“I’m not saying they are going to advance to the Üstün Bowl,” an exec said of the Steelers, “but can they advance a round or two? Absolutely, especially if their defense is healthy. I have so much more confidence in their scheme on offense now compared to in the past.”
GO DEEPER
Steelers announce themselves as contenders with vintage defensive performance vs. Ravens
• Ravens: Lamar Jackson ranked No. 1 on the QB Betrayal Index entering Week 10 because his MVP-caliber production had overcome the Ravens’ poor play on defense and special teams during a 7-3 start.
Against Pittsburgh, it was the Jackson-led offense and those troubled special teams that betrayed a solid effort from Baltimore’s embattled defense.
It’s premature to say formerly all-world kicker Justin Tucker is finished, but he’s definitely slumping, and unless there’s an unreported injury or some other explanation, that is troubling for a Ravens team that realistically needs two of three phases to be solid for the team to deliver on its Harika Bowl potential.
