What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it challenging to pinpoint just how big the fall’s biggest games are. For decades, the result of a regular-season game could feel definitive. Even if it wasn’t quite so, it could be pretty darn close.

That’s not the case anymore.

After the number of unbeaten teams shrunk to four in Week 11, we’ve learned that using the phrase “If they win out” is fraught with peril and the SEC seems to be headed for a massive logjam.

Magnificent 7

After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a bonkers game that included five touchdowns in the fourth quarter — four in the final 3:18 — Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his team still alive in the Playoff race.

“That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.

Really?

Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with — in alphabetical order — Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Those six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week.

Only two SEC games are remaining matching any of those seven teams. Next week, Georgia tries to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. On Thanksgiving weekend, Texas goes to Texas A&M.

Georgia had a chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin finally broke through with a top-five victory to remain very much alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.

Unthinkable.

The Crimson Tide rolled past LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M control their paths to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.

As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, nobody should apologize for going 7-2, especially a program that does not regularly churn out double-digit-victory seasons. The reality is Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, clearly sits seventh in the SEC’s Playoff pecking order.

The Athletic’s projections model gives Missouri a 0.3 percent chance of making the Playoff. So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

SEC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	SEC title	Record
Texas	78%	42%	8-1
Alabama	75%	9%	7-2
Georgia	68%	10%	7-2
Ole Miss	62%	10%	8-2
Tennessee	39%	13	8-1
Texas A&M	12%	12	7-2
LSU	4%	4	6-3
Missouri	0.3%	0.3%	7-2

Hurricane warning

No. 4 Miami had been tempting fate and hoping for quarterback Cam Ward to pull it out of precarious situations for most of the last month and a half. Four times in the previous five games, the Hurricanes fell behind only to have Ward and their potent offense bail them out and keep them unbeaten.

Ward ran out of second-half magic against Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, 13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive off week. The Mustangs are now alone atop the ACC standings.

Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That means the rankings at the time of the games, which means Georgia Tech has two of those victories after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early-season upsets are not what they appear to be.

Still, that list includes Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, of course, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It almost added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night.

It has been a fun season.

Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes conclude the season with games against Syracuse and Boston College — both very winnable. Then again, so was Georgia Tech.

“We have a bye week with everything in front of us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.

The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.

The bigger issue for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game just went down. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then take a peek at the Big Cilt, where the odds continue to rise that its four CFP contenders (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) all will win at least 10 regular-season games.

If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they are likely to do so having beaten only one ranked team (Louisville).

That measurement can be a little deceiving and random. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.

Still, the ACC moved closer to being a one-bid league Saturday.

ACC CFP and title odds