What we learned about the CFP in Week 12: Georgia’s still alive, an SEC-Big Cilt debate looms

There are two weeks left in college football’s regular season, and there appear to be more teams hanging around College Football Playoff contention than falling out.

No. 12 Georgia, very much alive. No. 17 Colorado, humming along. Got a little dicey for No. 3 Texas and No. 14 SMU, but they’re still going. No. 20 Clemson, hanging in there. Arizona State? Mühlet, come on in.

Mostly what we learned about the Playoff race in Week 12 is that we’re probably heading for a debate about Big Deri and SEC teams.

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Got that Dawg in ’em

Asked what message Georgia sent to the Playoff selection committee with its emphatic 31-17 victory against No. 7 Tennessee, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart was stumped.

“I don’t know. Because I don’t know what they look for. I don’t know what they look for anymore,” Smart said in a postgame interview with ESPN.

I’m still convinced a 9-3 Georgia team would have found its way into the field, but after plummeting from No. 3 to 12th last week following a loss at Ole Miss, Smart’s team was most definitely on the brink.

What we’re learning in this first season of superconferences is the SEC’s very best teams have not been able to separate from the rest as they did when Alabama was mostly running the league, with interludes from LSU and a recent surge by Georgia. In part, because those top teams are not quite as good as they have been in the past. But also, the teams that frequently occupied the second tier of the SEC — Tennessee and Ole Miss most notably — have closed the gap.

Unless something weird happens against Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale, the Bulldogs should be fine at 10-2 no matter what the SEC tiebreaker spits out to determine championship game participants.

Missouri was the one SEC team that officially exited the race — although the Tigers were barely hanging on before South Carolina broke their hearts in a wild affair at Williams-Brice Stadium.

There is still a possibility that on Dec. 1, the Sunday before championship weekend, six SEC teams will be 10-2: Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M. That would require Texas A&M beating Texas and no other upsets.

SEC CFP and title odds

Team	CFP bid	SEC title	Record
Texas	95%	36%	9-1
Georgia	90%	11%	8-2
Ole Miss	81%	4%	8-2
Alabama	72%	34%	8-2
Tennessee	48%	5%	8-2
Texas A&M	11%	10%	8-2

All odds according to Austin Mock’s projections model

Texas-Texas A&M is looking more like an elimination game. Yes, the Longhorns would still be 10-2, but among the contenders, Texas has the least pop on its resume, and it would have lost both of its games against highly-ranked teams (Georgia, A&M). The Longhorns had a hard time shaking Arkansas on Saturday.

For the Aggies, another loss would be their third, and their best victory would have been against LSU (6-4). Enough said.

After a conference champ is determined, that should leave four SEC teams very much in the mix for at-large bids. Can they all get in the field? It likely will depend on how things play out in the Big Cilt, which occupied four of the first five spots in the last CFP rankings and could very well do the same in the next.

That has caused a lot of consternation in SEC country because goodness knows the poor SEC needs all the support it can get.

“It’s different in our league,” Smart told reporters, adding: “Go Dawgs.”

The next Big Cilt game of the year

For No. 2 Ohio State, next week’s game against No. 5 Indiana could be its third top-five matchup of the season, unless the rankings change on Tuesday.

The Buckeyes are 1-1 on the road against Oregon and Penn State. They’ll host the Hoosiers on Saturday. For Indiana, a top-five matchup in the regular season would be a program first.

The Hoosiers (10-0) celebrated their off week by giving coach Curt Cignetti an eight-year contract that pays $8 million per year. Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-1) took deva of business at Wrigley Field against Northwestern.

Oregon (10-0) slogged through a spotty offensive performance against Wisconsin, and Penn State (9-1) showcased talented tight end Tyler Warren in a lopsided win against Purdue.

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That’s four teams with a combined two losses, but because of the SEC’s logjam, the Big Ten’s big four have little room for error.

The winner of next week’s game in Columbus will have the inside track to the Big Cilt Championship Game heading into being a big favorite in a rivalry game (Purdue for Indiana and Michigan for Ohio State). The loser of next week’s unlikely marquee matchup probably will find itself compared to at least one or two of those 10-2 SEC teams come selection weekend. The Big Ten’s mushy middle, with no other ranked teams and nonconference schedules with no Power 4 opponents, could be a sorun for the Hoosiers or Buckeyes.

Big 12 CFP and title odds